The model expects them to win about 235 seats, with eight in ten simulations landing between 221 and 249. A majority takes 218.
Updated Tuesday, November 3 at 10:28 AM ET. Polls close Tuesday, November 3.
Each dot is a district, sorted by how likely the Democrat is to win it and stacked in columns of 15. The 218th dot is where the majority is decided.
235 expected Democratic seats · 234 lean their way · 9 within 40–60%
The model: past results, the national environment, candidates, fundraising, expert ratings, and polls.
Start from how the district votes for president, then let each input move it. Defaults to PA‑08, the seat most likely to decide the majority.
Predicted margin D+4.7, a 81% chance the Democrat wins
Partisan lean
2024 presidential margin on the 2026 lines, compared with the nation
National mood
Generic ballot and presidential approval shift every seat together
Candidates and money
Incumbency, last cycle's over- or underperformance, FEC fundraising
Expert ratings
Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato, for the seats they rate
District polls
Recent polls, adjusted 5 points against partisan sponsors
Steps are the model's layers added one at a time, so a step can also re-weight earlier inputs: once expert ratings enter, the model leans less on raw partisanship in rated seats.
Every simulation draws one national polling miss shared by all 435 races, a miss for each state, and noise for each race. Because a national miss moves dozens of seats at once, the spread is wide.
Democrats reach 218 in 94% of simulations; the median outcome is 235 seats.
Every seat that's between 2% and 98% in at least one view. Search by state or district.
| District | Inc. | Lean | Experts | Polls | Model | Market | Blend | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-03 | R | R+19.6 | Solid R | – | <1% | 4% | 2% | -4 |
| PA-11 | R | R+19.9 | Solid R | – | <1% | 3% | 1% | -2 |
| PA-16 | R | R+21.3 | Solid R | – | <1% | 4% | 2% | -3 |
| NC-10 | R | R+16.2 | Solid R | – | <1% | 5% | 1% | -4 |
| NY-23 | R | R+19.5 | Solid R | – | <1% | 4% | 2% | -3 |
| OK-01 | Open | R+20.0 | Solid R | – | <1% | 6% | 2% | -5 |
| TX-02 | Open | R+21.3 | Solid R | R+14.0 (1) | <1% | 6% | 1% | -5 |
| TX-38 | Open | R+19.4 | Solid R | – | <1% | 4% | 1% | -3 |
| GA-01 | Open | R+14.3 | Solid R | – | <1% | 12% | 2% | -11 |
| GA-12 | R | R+12.7 | Solid R | – | <1% | 14% | 3% | -14 |
| NC-08 | R | R+17.9 | Solid R | – | <1% | 5% | 2% | -4 |
| SC-02 | R | R+12.4 | Solid R | – | <1% | 10% | 3% | -9 |
| SC-05 | Open | R+21.3 | Solid R | – | <1% | 4% | 1% | -3 |
| TN-07 | Open | R+20.9 | Solid R | – | <1% | 7% | 2% | -6 |
| TX-22 | Open | R+20.8 | Solid R | – | <1% | 4% | 1% | -3 |
| TX-24 | R | R+14.6 | Solid R | – | <1% | 5% | 2% | -4 |
| AZ-05 | Open | R+18.5 | Solid R | – | 1% | 11% | 2% | -9 |
| FL-05 | R | R+19.9 | Solid R | – | 1% | 4% | 1% | -3 |
| NY-02 | R | R+12.4 | Solid R | – | 1% | 16% | 2% | -15 |
| TX-10 | Open | R+21.1 | Solid R | – | 1% | 7% | 2% | -6 |
| TX-21 | Open | R+20.3 | Solid R | – | 1% | 4% | 2% | -3 |
| WI-08 | R | R+14.8 | Solid R | – | 1% | 11% | 2% | -9 |
| FL-21 | R | R+14.8 | Solid R | – | 1% | 11% | 2% | -10 |
| TX-32 | Open | R+16.3 | Solid R | – | 1% | 13% | 3% | -12 |
| WA-04 | Open | R+19.2 | Solid R | – | 1% | 8% | 2% | -7 |
| WI-06 | R | R+15.0 | Solid R | – | 1% | 7% | 2% | -6 |
| WI-07 | Open | R+21.0 | Solid R | – | 1% | 6% | 2% | -5 |
| AZ-08 | R | R+14.8 | Solid R | – | 1% | 13% | 2% | -11 |
| MN-08 | R | R+12.8 | Solid R | – | 1% | 16% | 2% | -15 |
| FL-02 | Open | R+16.5 | Solid R | – | 1% | 10% | 2% | -8 |
| FL-11 | Open | R+14.2 | Solid R | – | 1% | 16% | 3% | -15 |
| TX-05 | R | R+20.1 | Solid R | – | 1% | 5% | 2% | -3 |
| TX-17 | R | R+20.2 | Solid R | – | 1% | 4% | 2% | -2 |
| FL-15 | R | R+18.4 | Solid R | – | 1% | 5% | 2% | -4 |
| FL-17 | R | R+20.6 | Solid R | – | 1% | 3% | 2% | -2 |
| GA-07 | R | R+20.5 | Solid R | R+3.0 (1) | 1% | 7% | 2% | -6 |
| NC-14 | R | R+13.6 | Solid R | – | 1% | 21% | 4% | -19 |
| FL-18 | R | R+15.5 | Solid R | – | 2% | 8% | 3% | -6 |
| OH-08 | R | R+14.1 | Solid R | – | 2% | 5% | 2% | -3 |
| OK-05 | R | R+16.2 | Solid R | – | 2% | 13% | 4% | -11 |
| TX-31 | R | R+20.4 | Solid R | – | 2% | 8% | 3% | -7 |
| FL-26 | R | R+16.9 | Solid R | – | 2% | 14% | 5% | -13 |
| MD-01 | R | R+15.4 | Solid R | – | 2% | 12% | 5% | -10 |
| NC-07 | R | R+12.3 | Solid R | – | 2% | 25% | 4% | -23 |
| NC-05 | R | R+16.3 | Solid R | – | 2% | 15% | 4% | -13 |
| TX-27 | R | R+19.7 | Solid R | – | 2% | 3% | 2% | -1 |
| FL-04 | R | R+10.3 | Solid R | – | 2% | 20% | 4% | -18 |
| MI-01 | R | R+19.7 | Solid R | – | 2% | 12% | 3% | -10 |
| NC-06 | R | R+15.7 | Solid R | – | 2% | 14% | 5% | -12 |
| CA-05 | R | R+19.2 | Solid R | – | 2% | 6% | 3% | -4 |
| TN-05 | Open | R+21.6 | Solid R | – | 2% | 12% | 5% | -9 |
| FL-08 | R | R+14.7 | Solid R | – | 3% | 7% | 4% | -4 |
| NY-01 | R | R+8.5 | Solid R | – | 3% | 20% | 8% | -17 |
| FL-12 | R | R+13.9 | Solid R | – | 4% | 21% | 9% | -17 |
| NJ-02 | R | R+11.1 | Likely R | R+15.0 (1) | 4% | 45% | 15% | -41 |
| GA-14 | Open | R+35.3 | Safe | – | 4% | 2% | 4% | +2 |
| NC-09 | R | R+14.4 | Likely R | R+9.0 (1) | 4% | 34% | 13% | -30 |
| NC-13 | R | R+15.0 | Likely R | – | 5% | 34% | 14% | -28 |
| WA-05 | R | R+9.3 | Likely R | – | 5% | 23% | 11% | -17 |
| NE-01 | R | R+11.5 | Likely R | R+6.0 (1) | 6% | 22% | 10% | -16 |
| VA-06 | R | R+22.4 | Safe | – | 6% | 5% | 5% | +1 |
| AR-02 | R | R+14.0 | Likely R | R+4.0 (1) | 7% | 27% | 14% | -20 |
| FL-16 | Open | R+12.2 | Likely R | – | 7% | 24% | 9% | -17 |
| TN-09 | Open | R+19.6 | Likely R | – | 7% | 23% | 12% | -16 |
| KS-02 | R | R+18.2 | Likely R | R+3.0 (1) | 8% | 21% | 12% | -13 |
| TX-03 | R | R+21.9 | Safe | – | 8% | 5% | 7% | +3 |
| NC-03 | R | R+12.1 | Likely R | – | 9% | 43% | 21% | -34 |
| TX-09 | Open | R+18.3 | Likely R | R+2.4 (2) | 10% | 27% | 16% | -17 |
| TN-04 | R | R+22.4 | Safe | – | 12% | 2% | 5% | +10 |
| FL-09 | D | R+16.3 | Lean R | R+5.0 (1) | 12% | 39% | 23% | -26 |
| FL-06 | Open | R+28.6 | Safe | – | 12% | 3% | 8% | +10 |
| TX-23 | Open | R+13.3 | Lean R | R+5.0 (1) | 13% | 36% | 22% | -22 |
| MO-02 | R | R+6.4 | Likely R | D+0.9 (3) | 14% | 41% | 25% | -27 |
| IN-05 | R | R+15.3 | Likely R | D+0.3 (2) | 15% | 24% | 18% | -9 |
| AK-AL | R | R+11.6 | Lean R | – | 17% | <1% | 5% | +17 |
| CA-40 | R | R+10.7 | Safe | – | 18% | – | 18% | – |
| CO-03 | R | R+8.2 | Likely R | D+1.0 (1) | 18% | 50% | 32% | -32 |
| FL-27 | R | R+13.1 | Lean R | – | 19% | 36% | 26% | -16 |
| CO-04 | R | R+16.8 | Lean R | – | 21% | 33% | 26% | -12 |
| NY-21 | Open | R+19.1 | Lean R | R+2.5 (3) | 22% | 28% | 25% | -7 |
| MN-01 | R | R+10.5 | Lean R | – | 23% | 40% | 31% | -16 |
| FL-13 | R | R+11.8 | Lean R | R+6.7 (2) | 24% | 25% | 24% | -1 |
| WI-01 | R | R+3.0 | Lean R | – | 24% | 53% | 30% | -29 |
| FL-07 | Open | R+11.0 | Lean R | Even (1) | 26% | 33% | 29% | -7 |
| NV-02 | Open | R+12.4 | Lean R | – | 28% | 35% | 31% | -7 |
| AZ-02 | R | R+13.5 | Lean R | D+2.0 (1) | 30% | 45% | 34% | -15 |
| ME-02 | Open | R+7.6 | Lean R | R+1.0 (1) | 32% | – | 32% | – |
| OH-15 | R | R+8.5 | Lean R | R+2.0 (1) | 33% | 40% | 36% | -7 |
| AL-02 | D | R+12.8 | Toss-up | – | 37% | 54% | 45% | -17 |
| OH-10 | R | R+6.3 | Lean R | – | 40% | 30% | 35% | +10 |
| MI-10 | Open | R+5.1 | Toss-up | R+10.0 (1) | 40% | 74% | 50% | -34 |
| KY-06 | Open | R+13.5 | Tilt R | D+1.6 (4) | 44% | 59% | 51% | -15 |
| VA-05 | R | R+10.8 | Tilt R | – | 44% | 46% | 45% | -2 |
| MI-04 | R | R+4.0 | Tilt D | R+8.0 (1) | 45% | 60% | 50% | -15 |
| SC-01 | Open | R+11.5 | Tilt R | – | 45% | 48% | 46% | -3 |
| NY-17 | R | D+2.1 | Tilt R | R+3.0 (1) | 45% | 56% | 51% | -11 |
| VA-01 | R | R+3.4 | Toss-up | R+4.0 (2) | 50% | 81% | 67% | -31 |
| CO-05 | R | R+7.6 | Tilt D | R+2.8 (2) | 57% | 44% | 52% | +14 |
| NC-01 | D | R+10.0 | Tilt D | R+0.4 (4) | 58% | 87% | 75% | -29 |
| PA-01 | R | D+1.8 | Tilt D | R+1.5 (3) | 60% | 63% | 61% | -3 |
| TX-35 | Open | R+9.0 | Tilt D | R+0.4 (3) | 63% | 73% | 68% | -9 |
| OH-07 | R | R+9.6 | Tilt D | R+1.0 (1) | 63% | 85% | 76% | -21 |
| WA-03 | D | R+1.8 | Tilt D | – | 64% | 89% | 78% | -25 |
| IA-02 | Open | R+8.5 | Tilt D | D+3.0 (1) | 66% | 73% | 69% | -6 |
| FL-25 | D | R+7.6 | Lean D | D+0.1 (3) | 69% | 83% | 77% | -14 |
| MT-01 | Open | R+10.1 | Tilt D | D+2.6 (4) | 70% | 60% | 65% | +11 |
| OH-09 | D | R+9.1 | Lean D | D+1.0 (1) | 71% | 82% | 76% | -10 |
| NM-02 | D | R+0.3 | Lean D | D+4.0 (1) | 73% | 92% | 84% | -20 |
| FL-14 | D | R+9.0 | Tilt D | D+5.0 (1) | 74% | 78% | 76% | -3 |
| FL-22 | Open | R+8.8 | Tilt D | – | 75% | 68% | 71% | +7 |
| TX-15 | R | R+16.4 | Tilt D | D+7.0 (1) | 77% | 88% | 83% | -11 |
| PA-10 | R | R+3.7 | Lean D | R+0.1 (3) | 77% | 83% | 79% | -5 |
| TX-34 | D | R+8.6 | Tilt D | D+7.0 (1) | 78% | 91% | 82% | -12 |
| PA-08 | R | R+7.0 | Lean D | D+2.6 (3) | 81% | 87% | 84% | -6 |
| MI-07 | R | D+0.2 | Tilt D | D+8.0 (1) | 81% | 78% | 79% | +3 |
| NY-03 | D | R+2.8 | Lean D | – | 81% | 92% | 86% | -10 |
| IA-01 | R | R+7.0 | Lean D | – | 83% | 93% | 88% | -10 |
| VA-02 | R | D+1.2 | Lean D | D+3.0 (1) | 83% | 92% | 87% | -8 |
| WI-03 | R | R+5.9 | Lean D | – | 83% | 87% | 84% | -4 |
| TX-28 | D | R+8.9 | Lean D | – | 84% | 93% | 86% | -9 |
| CA-22 | R | R+0.4 | Tilt D | – | 84% | – | 84% | – |
| IA-03 | R | R+2.9 | Lean D | – | 84% | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| PA-07 | R | R+1.7 | Lean D | D+3.9 (3) | 84% | 90% | 86% | -6 |
| NJ-07 | R | D+0.3 | Lean D | – | 85% | 96% | 91% | -10 |
| NV-03 | D | D+0.8 | Likely D | D+2.0 (1) | 85% | 95% | 87% | -9 |
| AZ-06 | R | D+0.8 | Lean D | – | 86% | 91% | 88% | -6 |
| CO-08 | R | R+0.3 | Lean D | – | 86% | 92% | 88% | -7 |
| AZ-01 | Open | R+1.6 | Lean D | – | 86% | 81% | 83% | +5 |
| NV-01 | D | D+3.8 | Likely D | – | 87% | 97% | 91% | -9 |
| NC-11 | Open | R+8.0 | Lean D | D+5.9 (2) | 88% | 88% | 88% | 0 |
| NY-04 | D | D+2.8 | Likely D | – | 89% | 92% | 89% | -4 |
| CA-13 | D | D+1.9 | Likely D | – | 91% | 93% | 92% | -2 |
| OH-01 | D | R+1.1 | Likely D | D+4.6 (2) | 91% | 95% | 93% | -4 |
| CA-48 | Open | D+4.9 | Lean D | – | 93% | 96% | 94% | -3 |
| NV-04 | D | D+3.8 | Likely D | – | 94% | 95% | 94% | -1 |
| IN-01 | D | D+1.9 | Likely D | – | 94% | 98% | 95% | -4 |
| NY-19 | D | D+3.3 | Likely D | – | 96% | 97% | 96% | -1 |
| NJ-09 | D | D+0.4 | Likely D | – | 96% | 97% | 96% | -1 |
| MI-08 | D | R+0.5 | Likely D | – | 96% | 97% | 96% | -1 |
| NH-01 | Open | D+3.5 | Likely D | D+4.0 (1) | 96% | 95% | 96% | +1 |
| CA-25 | D | D+7.3 | Safe | – | 98% | – | 98% | – |
| CT-05 | D | D+7.1 | Safe | – | 98% | – | 98% | – |
| MI-03 | D | D+9.3 | Solid D | – | 98% | 97% | 97% | +1 |
| NE-02 | Open | D+6.1 | Likely D | D+12.0 (1) | 98% | 93% | 97% | +5 |
| CA-45 | D | D+5.4 | Likely D | – | 98% | 94% | 97% | +4 |
| MN-02 | Open | D+7.3 | Likely D | – | 98% | 95% | 97% | +3 |
| VA-07 | D | D+4.4 | Solid D | – | 98% | 97% | 98% | +1 |
| OH-13 | D | D+4.8 | Likely D | – | 98% | 97% | 98% | +1 |
| CA-06 | D | D+9.9 | Likely D | – | 99% | 96% | 98% | +2 |
| CA-21 | D | D+7.5 | Solid D | – | 99% | 98% | 99% | +1 |
| NH-02 | D | D+5.1 | Solid D | D+16.0 (1) | 99% | 96% | 98% | +3 |
Probabilities are for a Democratic win. Gap is positive when the model is more bullish on Democrats than the market.
Each past election from 2006 to 2024 is predicted by a model that never saw it, using only what was known a week before Election Day.
| Model | Brier | Log loss | Seat error | Midterms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deluxe (this model) | 0.024 | 0.078 | 8.7 | 0.026 |
| Cook ratings alone | 0.026 | 0.091 | 6.9 | 0.030 |
| Classic | 0.032 | 0.103 | 10.6 | 0.033 |
| Lite | 0.052 | 0.179 | 13.2 | 0.053 |
| Generic ballot only | 0.061 | 0.211 | 14.5 | 0.066 |
Each year is predicted by a model fit only on the other years, with inputs frozen 7 days before Election Day. Brier and log loss score every district's win probability (lower is better); “Midterms” is Brier on 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 only. Deluxe beats expert ratings on calling individual races; it is still worse on the total seat count, mostly in years when the generic-ballot polls missed (2006, 2020).
One number, several fair answers. Defensible modeling choices move the headline. Fit only on 2010–2024, leaving out the 2006 and 2008 waves, and the chance is 89% instead of 94%; the simpler Lite model says 83%. Read it as a range, not a decimal.
Ten elections. Only 2006–2024 calibrate how big a national polling miss can be, so the uncertainty is itself uncertain.
Two parties. It models Democrat-versus-Republican races. Independents backed by Democrats, as in Alaska, are a blind spot.
Thin markets. District markets often trade under $50,000 and overprice underdogs, which is why the blend caps their weight.
Imperfect freezing. Past expert ratings and fundraising are final pre-election values, not exactly what was known a week out.